In my cousin Dan's blog, he gives his take on the GOP side. His preferences are former NYC mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain, though he admits a certain fondness for Newt Gingrich.
As anyone who reads the papers today knows, all except Gingrich are acknowledged leaders for the Republican nomination. McCain has been running for the last seven years, Giuliani practically the last three, since the Republican nominating convention in New York City in 2004. Romney is a fairly new addition.
Wikipedia lists the announced and potential candidates for 2008, as well as a number of those who were thought to be considering campaigns in the last year or so but have for various reasons decided not to. At the moment, the site lists thirteen men who are official or presumed candidates. In order:
Sam Brownback, Senior Senator from Kansas. He is a social conservative who has been raising his profile a bit by publicly opposing the "surge" in troops in Iraq ordered by the President. Most of his support will come from the conservative base of the Republican Party. He was raised a Methodist before becoming an evangelical Christian who then converted to Catholicism several years ago. Not very well-known nationally. A long-shot in the general election, he could do some damage in the primaries.
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts. Another social conservative, he is more of a moderate when it comes to business and has shown flashes of liberalism in issues such as healthcare. Better known than Brownback, he too faces an uphill battle in the general election.
Duncan Hunter, Representative from California. Very conservative, member and former Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee who also strongly opposes illegal immigration and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Won't get far in the primaries and has no shot in November '08.
Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia. Who's he?
Rudolph Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City. One of the best known Republicans nationally, he is noted for leadership of the Big Apple during which crime decreased to near-historic lows, as well as his performance during the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center on September 11th, 2001. Social liberal, he has been married three times - once to his second cousin - and divorced twice, and supports gun control and gay rights. Though he would be a strong candidate in November, he won't get more than a cup of coffee during the primaries, where the base rules. They'll listen to him politely, then vote for somebody more like them.
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. The "other man from Hope" after Bill Clinton. Well spoken, polite, a social conservative who could be expected to work well with the loyal opposition. Not well known, but is a potential dark horse in 2008.
John McCain, Senior Senator from Arizona. Probably the best known Republican, is a social moderate-conservative who is known for taking some unpopular positions with the base and refusing to back down on such issues as campaign finance reform and judicial nominations. Vietnam Veteran who spent five and one-half years as a Prisoner of War in North Vietnam. Potentially the candidate who would draw the most independent and even some conservative Democratic votes, he may be hurt by two issues, one new and one old: his support for the President's troop surge, and his involvement with the Keating Five. Currently this space's pick to win the nomination.
Ron Paul, Representative from Texas. See Jim Gilmore.
Tom Tancredo, Representative from Colorado. See Jim Gilmore.
Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Wisconsin, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services. Social moderate with no shot at the primaries or the nomination.
Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Reprentatives from Georgia. Architect of the GOP's 1994 Congressional majority, he has become something of a moderating voice in the Republican Party, pointing out things that the White House would rather not hear. Because of his role in the Contract With America, has probably more credibility than most of the current candidates save McCain and Giuliani, though he still may have problems in the general election due to the public's disgust of late for anybody called "Congressman".
Chuck Hagel, Senior Senator from Nebraska. Another decorated Vietnam Veteran, he has become a favorite of some liberal groups for his open hostility to the President's conduct of the war in Iraq, and has been so since the start. Even though he is more of a traditional conservative than McCain, his opposition to the Iraq War should be enough to derail him with the base, though might do fairly well in the general election, should he get that far. Fairly blunt when he talks.
George Pataki, former Governor of New York. Not very well known nationally, a fiscal and social moderate, which alone would give him no shot in the primaries past the week before Iowa. Wasn't very popular when he decided not to run for a fourth term as governor.
No one has a crystal ball, of course. As Anna Quindlen pointed out in Newsweek's February 5th issue, Bill Clinton was an unknown around this point in the 1992 election season, and George H. W. Bush was considered unbeatable. Does anybody remember Paul Tsongas?
Coming soon, the Democratic predictions.
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